Alright, traders and degenerates, it’s time to talk turkey about the coming week in the market. Get ready for some serious earnings fireworks, and brace yourself for the economic data drop that could set your portfolio on fire (in a good or bad way, we’ll see). Here’s your no-BS guide to what’s ahead.

The Earnings Circus: Big Names Stepping Into the Ring

This week’s earnings reports feature some heavy hitters, and the market’s mood could swing hard depending on how these bad boys perform. Let’s break down the key players:

Nike (NKE) – Tuesday, Oct 1

Look, it's been a rough year for the swoosh gang with the stock down over 20%, and it doesn’t look like this earnings call will offer much relief. Bill Ackman's jumped in (because of course he has) and his newly staked position adds some intrigue, but the numbers are still ugly. Analysts expect earnings of $0.52 per share, down 44% year-over-year, and revenue to come in at $11.7 billion, down about 9%. The real show? Watching management try to convince us they're still cool with the kids. Nike needs to prove it’s still a dominant player and not just another brand lost in the chaos of retail.

Carnival (CCL) – Monday, Sept 30

Ready to see how the cruise line industry is holding up in this economy? Carnival reports earnings on Monday with an estimate of $1.17 per share on $7.82 billion in revenue. This is a major indicator of consumer sentiment. If they beat, maybe the recession isn't as bad as your portfolio suggests. If they miss ... well, there's always the local swimming pool. The "cruising back to normalcy" narrative might take a major hit.

Levi Strauss (LEVI) – Wednesday, Oct 2

Remember when everyone thought jeans were dead? Well, Levi’s earnings will either confirm that Gen Z has killed denim or show us there’s still life in the old Levi’s. Analysts expect $0.31 per share, and while the company has been struggling to keep up with changing fashion trends, a strong holiday forecast could be their saving grace.

Constellation Brands (STZ) – Thursday, Oct 3

Constellation Brands has always been a solid performer thanks to its strong portfolio of alcoholic beverages, but their bet on cannabis, via Canopy Growth, has been a wild ride. Earnings are projected at $4.08 per share, and investors will be keen to see how their cannabis investments are panning out. This report could swing sentiment in the pot stock space, so keep an eye on how they guide for the future.

Tilray (TLRY) – Thursday, Oct 3

Speaking of cannabis plays: Tilray’s coming in with an expected loss of $0.04 per share. At this point, they just need to show us the industry isn't completely going up in smoke.

Economic Data Bombs: Jobs Report & ISM Index

If you’re trading this week, you better be watching the economic data like a hawk because we’ve got some major reports dropping that will set the tone for everything from stock prices to the Fed’s next move.

Jobs Report – Friday, Oct 4
The granddaddy of all economic reports drops Friday. The September jobs report is everything for determining what the Fed does next. A stronger-than-expected report could keep the rate-hike narrative alive, while a softer number might give the market hope for a pause or pivot in Fed policy. Either way, this report will have a massive impact on the market’s direction heading into the end of the year.

ISM Manufacturing Index – Tuesday, Oct 1
Want to know if the U.S. economy is still running or if we’ve already slipped into a recession? This report might spill the tea. With recent data suggesting a slowdown, another weak print could reinforce fears of a broader economic downturn. On the flip side, a stronger-than-expected number could ignite some optimism【12†source】.

What to Watch For

This week’s earnings reports and economic data are going to throw gas on the market’s already raging fire. If earnings beat, we could see some relief rallies, but any big misses—especially from major players like Nike or Levi’s—could lead to serious selling pressure.

In addition, everyone’s got one eye on the data and one on the Fed. With inflation still above target and the labor market tight, every piece of economic data matters more than ever. Watch the Fed speakers for any hints about rate decisions.

Get Ready to Buckle Up

This week is a minefield of market-moving events. You’ve got big earnings calls, a key jobs report, and manufacturing data that could all send the market flying in either direction. Between earnings season drama and enough economic data to make an economist cry, you're gonna want to keep your stops tight and your Twitter notifications on. It’s gonna be wild.

Tea Leaves

Market Movers for the Week of September 30 2024